The grain market has been literally and figuratively on fire these past 2 trading sessions. As I’m writing this, December Corn is up 45 cents – and this is after being up 30 cents on Friday. That’s 75 cents or almost $4,000 per contract.
November Soybeans are up 47 now after being up 70 cents on Friday. That’s over $5,000 per contract.
How much of these gains are you willing to take?
When you are out marketing your track record, allocators will ask how you handled this period in time. Telling them “I just followed my rules” is too general and you won’t build any trust with this statement. You need to break it down for them.
Another answer is “I saw unanticipated gains that came to me as a gift in a matter of a few days. I felt this was an outlier event that didn’t show it’s head in my hypothetical backtesting. I took some gains and MOST IMPORTANTLY I cut the risk and the volatility to my portfolio.”
When the market is on one side of the trade, everyone will be heading for the door at the same time. But if you are just starting out (5 years or less of a track record) managing risk is as much about managing your track record than for someone such as Bill Dunn for example. He already has everyone’s trust. You don’t. You need to earn it. And to put that into perspective, it will take 10 to 15 years before anyone is going to know whether your trading results are random or based upon skill.
Look at it from another point of view: You had gigantic gains overnight. You waited for an X-day low to get out and watched the gains recede faster than your hairline? Explain that to a client. They are not going to care about your rules when you’ve let gains slip through your fingers.
In circumstance like these, you have to pick a spot where you’ll be emotionally and financially stable by offsetting some of the risk. Sell some contracts and move a stop up to protect the majority of the unrealized gains. You can get back in. Most of the guys who made kajillions during gold’s big move in 1979 were catching large chunks of the move. That means they were in and out of gold WHILE IT WAS TRENDING.
Ed Seykota used to say, “your stop is the point at which you are willing to transfer the risk to someone else.” What is that spot for you?
In order to get a feel for using options in turbulent times, listen to my interview with Larry Shover, author of Trading Options in Turbulent Markets.