US gas demand should fall for good after ’06 peak – Thank God

I just almost spit out my dinner after reading this headline at Yahoo!:

“US gas demand should fall for good after ’06 peak.”

It’s amazing how people love to predict things. It’s a pastime unto itself. Here’s how the article starts:

“After seven decades of mostly uninterrupted growth, U.S. gasoline demand is at the start of a long-term decline. By 2030, Americans will burn at least 20 percent less gasoline than today, experts say, even as millions of more cars clog the roads.

By 2030? That’s great…only 20 years from now. If you believe it…The main currency for a fundamental analyst are their predictions and opinions. And they ain’t worth much.

Want to know how hard it is to predict? Look back over the last 20 years and see how not only how much things change, but how unexpectedly things change. That will take you back to 1990. Have fun.


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