(click for a larger and clearer image)
The June contract traded above 7600 today. Despite what you may think of the USD long or short-term, you normally don’t want to fight the tape.
In the near-term the price looks to head higher. The chart above depicts what Victor Sperandeo calls a “123 Reversal” pattern, which is reliable.
Maybe the USD is the “evil of two lessers?”
The longer term trend followers should start getting into long positions somewhere around here.
I wonder if Vic Sparendeo thinks this could be a longer term bottom, in other words, where a trader can reasonably expect a 1000 points, on DX contract over 6 – 9 months.
Wow ! This is interesting.
Next- the bigger headache- when to plan the possible exit.
Comments on CRB index anyone ? The ags / metals don’t seem to weaken.
You can plan to trail the trade with an exiting sell stop order at a level
that is both financially and emotionally rewarding.
Selling defined risk premium can help alleviate drawdowns in times like this.
I’m seeing some big red #’s ytd for most cta’s.
If that mean selling option premia, I’d be very careful. Being short gamma
in wild markets is a recipe for disaster. Maybe net credit spreads if
anything.
Here are some good CTA numbers: http://www.iasg.com/