How to avoid foreseeable blind spots

market gambles

Sometimes the best trades are the ones that you don’t enter.

I know this might sound cute, but entering orders around big announcements can be a big gamble. 

Consider how you feel around trading the EIA, API, NOPA Crush numbers, quarterly earning announcements, and the FOMC announcements. 

Are you keeping orders on the book or do you lift them? Is part of the payoff the excitement around the trade ?

Lift the orders around these moments of uncertainly. If you’re trading options, that’s a different story. 

Conclusion

I don’t think it’s a good idea to make your bones trying to trade announcements as a strategy. Allocators won’t know how you can model this in a way that has high expected values, and in today’s world, low daily volatility. 

Cancel existing orders around the releasing of key data points. I’m not saying to offset existing positions.

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