Classic Mauboussin – “Untangling Skill and Luck”

I consider reading Michael Mauboussin a great privilege.

Here is a pdf he sent me recently called Untangling Skill and Luck.


For almost two centuries, Spain has hosted an enormously popular Christmas lottery. Based on payout, it is the biggest lottery in the world and nearly all Spaniards play. In the mid 1970s, a man sought a ticket with the last two digits ending in 48. He found a ticket, bought it, and then won the lottery. When asked why he was so intent on finding that number, he replied, “I dreamed of the number seven for seven straight nights. And 7 times 7 is 48.”

If you missed it, I recorded a great podcast with Mauboussin on the heels of his great book Think Twice.

Please note: I reserve the right to delete comments that are offensive or off-topic.