What is the best attribute to have as a trader?

Hey everybody, it’s Michael Martin. Thanks for being here. While you get a chance, please like and subscribe to the show. Leave a comment if you’d like, because then it gives me good feedback as to where I might’ve hit it, done it well, or done it poorly. For example, in the show, got a question about what’s the best attribute that a trader can bring to the table from, say a personality standpoint if they want to be a great success in the market, is they have to be math whiz and they need to know how to code and python or rubion rails, whatever that it might be, or just have a great feel for the market. And the answer probably won’t surprise you. In my humble opinion, the best thing that a trader can bring to the table is actually a good attitude, which probably makes sense because I don’t think you can do anything in life as a profession if you have a poor attitude.
It’s okay to be in a bad mood once in a while, but you have to watch it because ultimately you get what you think about. And if you’re walking around pissing and pissing and moaning all the time, you just get more of the stuff that makes you feel that way. So my take is because it’s such a game of failure like baseball and that you’re going to be wrong, some of you probably have very accurate systems, but for the majority of traders, in my opinion, they’re wrong. More than half the time could be 50 to 70%. And so if you know that from a mathematical expectation, you could also set up, say, an emotional expectation that’s attached to the results of your trading. Now, if you’re doing it by hand and you’re discretionary, you have to keep a trade ledger of all your trades and then download them into a spreadsheet or keep it going and then see what’s your winning percentage.
And then when you win, how big, what’s your average winner, and then what’s your average loser? And from there, you can calculate the expected value of what it is that you’re doing with the trading system, it’s a little easier because most of the software will calculate it for you and give it to you on the results page and do it very, very quickly and very, very accurately. So that’s one of the benefits I have in the software. But I think having a good attitude is important, especially when the markets are crazy, when you feel fearful when you’re losing money. Because if you know the expected value of your trade and what your winning percentage is, you can actually use that data to help you create a good attitude. Because if you’ve back tested your system for 10 or 20 years, for example, and you’ve seen that you lose 50 to 60% of the time, that just typically means that every other trade that you put on is going to be a loser on average.
And so having a good attitude and not becoming emotionally invested in the outcome of any particular trade, even if it’s your favorite setup, to keep your head on straight and have a good attitude and just say, Hey, it’s just one trade of hus, hundreds or thousands of trades that I’m going to put on. And no one likes losing per se, because you can’t be really good loser, but you kind of have to learn how to lose well so that you don’t go on tilt, right, and maintain a good attitude and just realize that your next winning trades around the corner, and it might take a couple of small losses before you catch one that really goes right. So that to me is the biggest thing I think is having a good attitude. When I look back and see what I was struggling, it was my belief, it was my vision that I had for myself and where I thought I could be once I got it down.
And that kind of pulled me to that goal, to the completion achievement of that goal, even though I had no proof. So it’s a little trick you can play on yourself in that, think of all your successes that you want to achieve in the future, but think of them as if you have them today and speak in your inner voice in the present tense as if you’ve achieved what it is that you’ve wanted to achieve, whether it’s making X amount of percent or a dollar amount of money or other types of goals that you might have. Usually it’s attached to a process, and usually your goal is in and around what it is. What is it that you want your money to do for you, for example, right? Because accumulating wealth is one thing, but if there’s no emotional attachment to it, it’s a lot harder to achieve when you can get excited about what it is you’re endeavoring because you can see what you can do with your ability or with your new found capital as it’s grown over the years.
I think that can help you keep a really, really good attitude because you know that you’re just one or two trades away from getting into a winning streak that you’re at any given time. You could lose money, but it could also be just bad luck and bad timing. So you try not to internalize the results, right? Because if you just follow the process and the process is bonafide, the process has positive expected value, then it just pays you on average to take those trades day after day after day, even if you find yourself taking small losses.
So if you know you’re going to lose, what you can do is kind of mentally prepare yourself for that ahead of time, maybe even Sunday, just say to yourself, Hey, here are my rules. Here are my setups so far for Sunday night, Monday morning, and here’s what I’m going to do. Here’s how I’m going to win the day is I’m just going to follow my rules and I’m going to stick to my system. And even if I lose money, I want to be able to look myself in the mirror and say that I kept my discipline and I didn’t get knocked off balance because I had a losing trade, or the market didn’t set up the way I needed it to or the way I wanted it to. It’s on it’s life, on life’s terms, and you just have to have peace around it. And sometimes it can be super aggravating and it’s not bad to get aggravated, but it’s what you do with that aggravation.
That’s where you don’t want to go on tilt. You don’t want to get into revenge trading. You just have to be completely placated and say, okay, win or lose. I’m going to get out of this situation exactly what I want. So if I want to get super, really, really angry, I’m sure you could find a way to let the market help you get into that anger and let that teach you what it, let your anger teach you something about yourself and your own behavior. It never paid me to get super angry because I only ended up hurting myself. And I think that’s probably a truism for most people too. Regardless of what your credit line is or how much money you’re running in your own account, if you’re not like at a hedge fund or a prop firm before the risk manager comes down and say that they’re cutting your risk by 30%, sometimes that’s just the way it goes.
So you got to make hay with what you have and stay in a good mood. I know it’s easier said than done, but whatever it is that you can do to keep a good positive attitude on things really is worth its weight and gold. I can’t think of another mental criteria or personality trait. Obviously you have to work hard, but you have to work smart. Putting in a long hours isn’t so virtuous if you’re not spending the time wisely. Cause a lot of folks just like to rack up the hours and see like, wow, I’m putting so much time in. But you know, have to get results. You have to get the results from the time that you put in. Otherwise you’re just going to find yourself putting a lot of time in and not getting any results, and then have nothing to show for it.
And then what happens? You get frustrated, angry, bitter, resentful, everybody else is winning, but I’m not. So it’s a very tricky deal. I live more like a hermit monk and I, I’m not engaged with other people cause I don’t want to hear how they’re doing, good or bad. I just want to focus on what I know I can execute day after day and therein is my discipline and my strength. So I hope that helps. I think attitude, whatever you can do to keep your attitude high and keep yourself esteem high in this very arduous practice, because sometimes, look, you might lose 10 in a row. There’s other times when the markets might be on fire and very amenable for what it is that you do. And you could be cranking. You know, I’ve had 15, 16 winners at a clip, and it happens, right? It’s random.
You can’t predict it, but you just take the trades and the market’s like, okay, we’ll go with you. Other times it’s like you can’t do anything. So if you trade long enough, you’ll kind of see one of everything. So just take it in stride and realize that the main thing is that it’s a marathon and you have to be able to come back and play tomorrow if you let your attitude fall by the wayside and start taking actions on the feelings that you don’t want to feel. You could put yourself in financial harm by losing more of your principle, and then you’ve got to dig out of a deeper hole. Remember, after 10% the rates of return that you need, meaning after a 10% drawdown is if you keep drawing down 15, 20%, you know, need a big, big winning streak to get back to break even. So be comfortable taking these small losses because the small
Losses are much easier to recover from than if you’re going to take a larger destabilizing loss, right? Because you’re acting out of emotion. So I would actually take solace in that and keep a good attitude and say, Hey, I’m doing just what I promised myself I was going to do, putting on all my trades and I’m losing good. I’m taking small, consistent, small losses, none of which could ever hurt me or put me out of business. And even if I added them all up, if you’re risking say two tenths of 1%, you could have five losers in a row and still have 99% of your overall capital at work, which effectively is all your money. So do whatever you can to keep a good attitude. Keep the comments coming, folks, keep the suggestions. I appreciate the time that you put in and I will keep making videos about the things that you think are important, at least for my experience to see if you can’t help you on your journey. Thanks for being here, folks. I’ll see you tomorrow.

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Honing your skills to make better trades

Hey everybody, it’s Michael Martin. Thanks for being here. So I got some follow up on my video that I did while back on getting a feel for the market and whether or not you’re supposed to develop a feel or be purely systematic, that’s a very personal decision, right? Because your trading style’s going to be as unique to you as your fingerprints are. And it’s really not for me to say which one is best. I know people who are great discretionary traders, and I know some really good system systematized folks as well. Systematized would be, at least in the modern definition, someone who’s taken data price volume in futures. You can look at open interest change in price, standard deviation, average, true range, this and that, and tries to organize his or her orders by just using those data points to calculate what’s the highest expected value of a trade that they can get.
And so that takes a good amount of time because you need several, you’ll probably need two decades of data. 10 years is good, but then you don’t have oh 7, 0 8. So you really have to go back 20 years from today, take you back to oh three and see how robust your system is. How can it withstand shocks to the system? Because if you’re going to do pure systematic trades, you’re going to let the computer calculate your entries and your exits, your position sizing. It’ll also calculate where your protective stop is based on your predetermined criteria. It can also help you calculate when at what price to add to your winner and how much of it will you add, right? Are you going to double your position or will you do more of a pyramiding style edition? Whereas chart readers are discretionary and they are looking maybe for a particular type of setup.
They might have one chart pattern that they trade really, really well, and that’s all they’re looking for. It can take more time to do it that way because you have to do it by hand. I suppose. Some of you can program it, but then again, you have to have programming skills or at least the wherewithal to go hire a programmer. And again, it’s not to say one is better than the other. What is one that’s best for you? Because I think when I looked at some of the comments, the folks who have a system also have a feel. It’s just that they aren’t going to change their behavior from day after day after day. Whereas I think folks who are discretionary chart readers need to bring a lot of discipline to the table because that’s where if you don’t have hard and fast rules, you can find yourself taking flyers. And that’s really not where you want to be. I think it’s not a cardinal sin because you have to experiment, but if every day you’re taking flowers because you don’t have a system that’s a different
Ball wax. So I would say do what feels best, right? Because you’re not going to be successful at something that doesn’t feel good. The simulators that you would need to back test are, they’re not necessarily cheap, but they’re not expensive. But you also need the data. And the data is typically a monthly subscription fee, right? Because you want to stay current, which brings up, I’ll kind of add this into this episode as well, is that people go indicator crazy. I found that when I was starting out, I didn’t know what I was doing. Probably you might feel, or even if you’re working at an institution and you’re going through a losing streak, you can still have that talk creep up in the back of your mind as if you don’t know what you’re doing. And so when folks send over charts to say, Hey, can you help me understand what’s going on with this chart?
And I see five or six overlays, it reminded me of when I was younger and I was starting out, I used to look at those indicators because I wanted to something to help me take away the uncertainty, right? Because that’s where, that’s what happens. And that can amplify your behavior. If you don’t like what it feels like when you have to feel uncertainty, you might override your rules. You might interject a rule or create a new one on the fly just because you don’t like how you’re feeling in that particular moment. And so as I got older and I got more experience, I was eliminating indicators. I found that the majority of ’em didn’t work, but they made me feel good because they could kind of confirm things that I could already see in the price. But it gave me a reassurance. As I got older, I started to understand that I didn’t need the reassurance because I could see it in the price, and I built more confidence in myself. And so the way I reacted to that was to drop off indicators so that now I don’t even have any, I know some of you like them, some of you swear by them, and I say more power to you. It’s not calling your girlfriend ugly because you’re using indicators. It’s just that for me, I don’t need them.
But I think the less you can rely on those indicators, the quicker you will be to develop your own instincts and your own ability. That’s my experience. The more I stopped relying on other people and out things that were external, I got to hone my own instincts and my own ability in trading the markets that way. It does take time, which can be frustrating because folks want to see success and they want to see it now. They want it fast because the, there’s uncertainty about the trade, but then there’s also uncertainty of how long is it going to take till you make it to hit whatever goal it is that you’re trying to hit. So be mindful of the indicators of why you’re using them. How do they fulfill you emotionally as opposed to financially? Cause I’ve just found that the majority of ’em are not necessarily, they’re mostly lagging indicators in many circumstances.
And so I would just prefer to let the price tell me what I needed to know. But anyway, I hope that gives you some clarity. There’s no judgment. It’s really just two different approaches to the markets. Maybe it’s a budget concern, maybe a, you would much rather kind of figure it out on your own. So I don’t say that one is better than the other just because I’ve seen people fail with both. I’ve seen folks go out and spend thousands of dollars on simulators and then subscribe to data feeds and then work and just they couldn’t get it to work. And it was very, very frustrating. And then I’ve seen folks who with a lot of hard work, but not a lot of the technological stuff, just develop really, really good instincts and trade off the charts or chart patterns. So it’s really, I wish I could remove that uncertainty for you, but that’s part of the joy of it, is that you get to figure it out.
And just remember, the uncertainty could be perceived as risk. And without risk, there’s typically not reward, right? So you don’t want to go taken on excessive risk just for the sake of doing it. It has to be measured, has to make sense. But anyway, those were the key similarities and differences that I saw between discretionary chart reading and folks who were purely systematic and trading with systematized set of rules. The indicators can play a role in both, but in my experience, I haven’t been able to test to see what is the magic indicator that works all the time, very few of them. So I just chose not to use any of them. Anyway, just my 2 cents. Please like and subscribe and keep your comments coming. I appreciate the feedback. Gives me good ideas to create more videos for you. See you tomorrow.

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Preparing for the upcoming week

Hey everybody, it’s Michael Martin. Thanks for being here. Happy Friday. So a question came in on what do I do to prepare for Monday, being that it’s the end of the week and everything. So it’s interesting, I tend to think of Sunday night, start my prep, prepare my preparation for Monday day, right? And then when I get to Friday night, you always do like what we call a checkout. Make sure all the orders are either filled or canceled and that if you did get filled, how much do you have at what prices, right? And then if there’s anything left in the portfolio, you have to bring that to the trader’s attention because someone might have fat fingered something and someone else’s trade ended up in your account. That’s a pain in the ass. So you got to get that fixed quickly. So we call that the checkout here.
So you do that and then I review the orders, see what happened, why didn’t they get filled this and that. Sometimes it’s just simple that the price never traded at or through the stop. So the order never got done. So what I try to do just right then and there is I spend not a lot of time, but probably 10 or 15 minutes going through everything because of whatever didn’t get done. Friday is likely going to be the same order I enter on Monday or Sunday night, depending on whether I’m calling it into the desk. Sometimes I do that, but I very rarely execute things like on the keyboard, so then I don’t have to do a lot of modulation. I’ll think of creating the same list. If the prices are in the neighborhood of where my levels are at likely whatever, the orders that were entered on Friday and weren’t filled, we’ll also get entered again Monday.
Not all the time, but very close to it, close to all the time. Then what I’ll do is very quickly Sunday night is I will come back and do some review and see if there was any movement in things that where I didn’t have orders and then harvest more or by orders or moving my protective stops. So that way come Monday morning, I’ll have everything that carried forward from Friday as well as the new developments all on one piece of paper. Double check the math on everything. And then again, depending on how busy we are, call the orders in the night before for outcry only or just wait until very early Monday morning and call them in that way. That’s just my style. It’s how I do it. I’ve been used to doing it the same way for a long time. It works for me and that’s part of my ecology. Same thing for you is I just tend to try to be as prepared as possible because when I think of preparedness, right, we talked about that all wars are won before the battles are fought. Victorious warrior first wins and then seeks battle. My whole thing is to try to be as prepared as possible so that my instincts are as sharp as possible so that I can see things that I otherwise wouldn’t miss, that
I would’ve missed. And that includes stuff like being hydrated eating very healthy, having good energy that way, not jacking up on sugar or Coke or C, caffeine. I was going to say cocaine not during the week. Then there’s rest and sleep. I’m in la local stock market opens regular opening bells at six 30. Cocoa opens at five in the morning. So the idea is is that when you’re up that early, you got to be sharp. That means you got to sleep well. It also means I can’t and I don’t drink, right? I don’t drink at all. I don’t never really had a taste for it. Certainly in LA we’re all in cars driving around back in New York where pedestrians ha hailing cabs and going in subway trains. So you could drink then and not necessarily worry about it. But now even with Uber and Lyft, you’re still in a car.
But I just found that maybe I’m a lightweight, but I can still feel like if I have one drink, I can feel the effect of it the next day. And since that doesn’t help me trade better, I just have to make the decision that the night before doesn’t work for me. So I just try to keep all my faculties. Some of you going to sit back and say, what I need my beer at the end of the day, I need whatever, this and that. And so those are choices that you make. I can’t judge you based on that. I just know for me, it doesn’t parlay into excellent performance cause I feel sluggish, and that’s kind of how I build out my routine is I try to get some of the work done actually Friday so that I know I’ve wrapped up the week as best I could.
Leave it behind me, do a little preparation for Monday, and then enjoy some downtime with virtually no exposure to the markets or the data or anything. Say for a brief little window Sunday night to round out the research and the prep for Monday morning and then it’s all systems go and I have solace and I have self-esteem and I have the confidence that I did everything that I could for the time that I had to be prepared. And that’s the best you can do. That’s how you win the day. Then the second part of that is consistent behavior. So you just repeat that process over and over and over again over weeks and weeks and weeks, and you’ll develop a really good track record because behavior predicts where you end up. Anyway, it’s been a long week. I hope you had a good one. Hope you have fun plans for the weekend. Please like and subscribe to the show. I enjoy doing it. Happy to help you. Please leave a comment or suggest a topic. I’ll be happy to cover it. Have a great weekend, folks. I’ll see you Monday.

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Why your biggest gains might not be your best trade

Hey everybody. Michael Martin, thanks for being here. Got a ping from someone about listing your best trades in your worst trades. And so ganja and I actually did an episode on that, talked about it. What most people think about is their biggest gain is that their best trade and is their biggest loss is at their worst trade. Not always right. Sometimes you could be in stuff and there’s just good news announcement thing blows up. You make a ton of cash for reasons you didn’t even know, but you’ll take it. Same thing on the downside. So when I think about this, and I certainly know after whatever, 30 something years of trading where some of the milestones are, they don’t have a lot of value looking back because you can’t sit there and talk about glory days, right? Bruce Springsteen sang song about glory days, it’s over.
It’s in the past. Doesn’t necessarily help you even trade here today in the ever-evolving moment of right now. So what I tend to do is not even think about that stuff because so much of it is good luck, bad luck, good timing, bad timing. My analysis is largely the same on every trade. And so what I do is I just try to say, okay, how can I perform consistently? And that’s really the message here, is that if you look at a bell curve and you say, okay, on this end of the bell curve is where your big losers are on this side of the bell curve, when you look at the normal distributions, where your outliers, your winners, your big winners are, when you think about everything within one stand, the deviation of the mean, that’s where the majority of your behavior’s going to come in.
And I know folks who’ve done very, very well just hitting it straight down the middle, right? So think about, I would let go of the best trade career trade kind of a thing because it’s a maturity thing. Let that go and fill your days with concern about can you behave consistently day after day after day after day after day, right? Because if you’re not running a systematized set of rules with a simulator that will help you calculate your orders and adjust your position sizes and calculate your entries and your exits, you’re a discretionary chart reader. So that makes it harder because every day you have to kind of think by the seat of your pants and go with what you think you know how to do. That might be a certain type of setup, might be a certain chart pattern. It doesn’t matter to me.
It’s all legit. It’s all works. But your goal is to obviously make sure that you find a set of rules with which you’re compatible. Those rules have to have positive expected value, and then to the best of your ability, screen the universe so that you know can put on those trades where you affect your edge each and every day. And if you can’t, you sit on your hands. That to me is the most important part of the trading, is your consistent behavior where the numbers fall afterwards to a great degree. We’re all powerless over that. So I wouldn’t lose a lot of sleep or fre about not having what you think
Is a career day or a career trade. If you’re in the game long enough, I promise you it’s going to happen. Don’t know where, what, or why or how it’s going to happen as I didn’t know it for me either. It just happened. And so focus on what you can do day after day after day and just stick to your knitting, because that’s really much more predictive for your career than any one particular day, even if you made a hundred percent in a day, right? So that’s it folks. Please like us, subscribe to the show. Leave a comment if you want, and if otherwise you can suggest a topic, I’ll be happy to get to it. Thanks very much for being here, folks. I’ll see you tomorrow.

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How to develop a feel for the market

Hey everybody. Michael Martin here. Thanks for joining the show today. So I got a nice email from somebody with expressing a lot of gratitude, which made me feel good. I appreciate that. Put a lot of work into the show. And the question was, can you elaborate please on what your take is on a person developing a feel for the market and how do you go about doing that? So that’s the million dollar question. Developing a feel is something that comes over time for most people. I do think that there are folks who are very insightful that can do it maybe more quickly than others, but it’s not something that I would think that you could develop over the, say, the course of a week or a month. It comes from a lot of time of observing, watching other people behave because that’s really what markets are, right?
You’re not really trading the instrument, you’re trading other people trading the instrument. So it’s kind of like poker on in that level is you’re playing the table as much as you’re playing the hand. So developing a feel, how would you go about it? So I think if you are on the short end of things and you’re day trading or swing trading, say stock index features, see the E mini or the Nasdaq, this and that, and you just focused on those two markets, I do think that’s the quickest way to develop a feel is by studying one instrument over maybe multiple timeframes every day. And just be prepared to do that for as long as you possibly can until you develop the feel. What’s the feel? I don’t know. The feel could probably be more like your sense of imagination, your sense of intuition. Can you foresee certain events coming to pass and then have them actually happen? So it’s not necessarily prediction, but it is anticipating how people are going to behave.
I have a good sense of knowing when to get out of a trade. It’s a natural ability. I was definitely born with it and I worked on it to hone it, to get it to be even better. So I was lucky in that regard. I needed to work on my sense of intuition, which is strong, but knowing how to hold the leash on that because your intuition could get you into situations that you don’t want to be in or that you could be early for. So then I had to learn to modify my position size because sometimes my intuition was right, but I was early and there was more volatility in the short run before what I anticipated was going to happen happened. And so I had to learn to better position size. So again, going back to why is trading difficult? This is all these moving parts that are in constant flux that you need to measure and interpret and conjugate with your emotional constitution so that you can set up a trading plan. I think if
You’re looking across many, many markets, say you’re following 2030 stocks for example, it might be something that you can do to develop a feel for a certain sector of the economy, maybe even a certain stock. But the more specialized you become, the more time it takes. The other side of that is the more you want to say be a sniper and have a developer feel for a certain market or a certain segment, you have to almost do that by forsaking everything else because there’s just not enough time in the day for you to be able to focus your energy on that one particular instrument or maybe even that one particular sector. So there are trade offs to be made.
I know folks who would get a chart book and graph paper and they would plot the price movement of the e mini on five minute increments. Now, of course you can get it all on the screen, but I have found that when you can take a paper to pen to paper, it becomes much more organic and it’s like taking notes. There’s a new form of ownership because how do people learn? There’s really three ways People learn to learn something, they learn it by hearing it, they learn it by reading it, or they learn it by writing it. And so I know reading is a big deal. Hearing it. Again, I don’t have media on, so I don’t let that into my world, but when you write that stuff out, you can kind of develop a feel that you wouldn’t get if you were just looking at the chart on a screen, for example.
So if you did that, you might notice that there’s certain tendencies. Obviously everybody, including my dead grandmother, knows that the open and the closed tend to be where there’s lots of volume. But then how does the thing behave during the day where the levels hold? And then think of those levels in terms of percentages. If there’s a big move up, how much does it typically retrace on a percentage basis before it kind of consolidates and then resumes the move. Those are all kinds of things that you can observe and see by hand and develop an enormous feel. I do think, excuse me, the more names you add to that list, it’s harder to develop that feel. It requires more work. I’m not saying that you can’t do it because I’m in no position to tell anybody what they can or can’t do, and my goal here is to help put some insight on some things, help you develop the confidence, because once you have confidence, there’s no stopping in you. So a lot of the work that we do on the consulting side is to help people see and feel and figure out where do they have skill so that they can focus on the skill, build confidence, then fill in the gaps with places where they might be lacking or they need to beef up a little bit.
And then once in a while, we do have to share some trading tactics but a lot of times the mindset work in a lot of ways has nothing to do with the trading ability. So having said that, I think it can be done. It just has to take, it takes some time. You can definitely develop a feel. I think one, another last thing that I’ll say is that if you keep some kind of trading journals, and I’ve got, let’s, well, not trade, I got journals for everything, but I’ve got one here, two here, I’ve got a third one here. So I’m a note taker. I’m a person who writes stuff down because even though I have a mind, like a trap, there’s a slangy expression out there that goes along the lines of a short list is better than a good a long memory. And so I tend to write things down.
It also helps me shape my ideas from over a longer term timeframe other than say something that I could execute right here, right now. So I feel in the end, you could definitely do it. Just know what the trade offs are. Also write down in those journals, what do you think you’re anticipating is going to happen, and then by when then what would you do as a trading tactic? How would you express that risk in your portfolio? Right? So that’s my thought. Please like and subscribe to this show. I appreciate all your comments and I’ll see you tomorrow.

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