So there’s an old joke in the real estate market when you go in and looking at a spot with your husband or wife and what are the worst words you could possibly hear is “honey, I love this place” because then it’s not a function of negotiating for the price, it’s the person who’s emotionally invested and needs to get the house at almost any cost.

So there’s a kind of similar situation in trading when you’re in a position and it works against you and you hear or you say and you’re speaking with somebody or you’re kind of negotiating with yourself and you’re like, “well let’s wait and see.”

This expression is going to open you up to untold losses because if you’re in a spot where should be taking profits but you don’t want to because you’re afraid that thing’s going to rally in your face after you take the loss or get out flat or whatever it might be, realize like that’s an early indicator for losing a lot of money when you get into that space.

I would almost make that a rule. If you have this hair trigger response, which I know is a sensitive term for many guys and you find yourself, well it’s not really working out, it’s not losing me money or it’s not losing me a lot of money, I’m just going to “wait and see.” Now you’ve become an investor. And whereas I do believe trades can become investments, especially if they’re up. You don’t want losing trades to become investments. But I’ve held winning trades in the futures markets for six weeks or more. Same position. So I don’t want to hear anything about how you have to offset stuff at the end of the day. Yeah, I know some of these funding platforms force you to get out of trades, but for the most part, you’re going to be better off holding onto your winners in your own account for as long as you possibly can, because the market will do the work for you.

There was a time in, I think it was the March Sugar of 2006, that thing went parabolic and I had been buying it from 8, 9, 10, wrote it up to 14 and I didn’t get out of the trade late September. It was late September through October where I was adding and then I didn’t get out until early January and I got stopped on a piece because I was trailing my equity. And then several days later the up trend continued and I actually came in twice as much at the time it was trading at historic highs. But those instances are out there where you can just ride the thing for as long as possible.

Position size to the point where you can withstand emotionally the daily swings. A good thing to do too is to get off of the machine. You don’t have to sit and watch it all day because that will induce you to do stupid things with your money. You think it’s putting you in control, but it actually works against you as far as having things work against you. It reminds me also to bring up the concept of time stops. If you put on a trade and you bought something at 25 and it’s sitting there for two days, it’s time to go because whatever you thought was the catalyst – presuming it’s a trade and not an investment – whatever you thought the catalyst was, it’s not working. And so you have to offset the trade that’ll save you a lot of money. It seems like you did a lot of work for nothing, but the main thing is to play superior defense, and that means to preserve your capital.

So if you find yourself in the mindset where you’re like, “Well, let’s wait and see how it goes,” you’re kind of delegating responsibility to some non-existent person in the future when you should be doing that. Taking action right now, especially if the thing is down. Good trades, meaning profitable trades start to make you money very, very soon right away because you’re buying with other buyers. And if that’s not happening, you have to look not necessarily at the price, but what are your criteria for entering and adding risk to your portfolio? So again, I find that very, very valuable. If you’re kind of lassez faire about something, you have to remember there’s money we’re talking about.

And if you’re going to be lassez faire and be like, Well, we just wait and see it. It seems to be a negotiating tactic that people use with themselves to kind of stop from doing what they should be doing, which is taking out sub-optimal trades out of their portfolio.

Anyway, keep all the questions coming, folks. I appreciate it. I don’t have all the answers. I only have those that I can speak to from my own subjective experience and if that helps you, then great. But I always appreciate the feedback and the new questions. Thanks for very, very much for being here, folks.

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It’s rainy season in Los Angeles. We live in a desert. We very rarely get precipitation from the sky. Oftentimes you might wake up and see that there’s moisture on the ground, but it’s very interesting here because most Angelenos learn to drive in what is effectively summertime for most people because the weather here is normally amenable.

I grew up in the northeast and so we had to learn to drive in four distinct seasons. That means dew on the road in the morning, it means black ice in the winter, roads that aren’t paved, roads that are paved, but not completely salted. Rain, wet leaves. So there’s a million different combinations. So you learn very quickly that it’s one thing to drive. It’s another thing to know how to handle a car. What happens when you go into a skid, for example. Typically you have to turn into the skid, let your foot off the accelerator. You don’t hit the brake, and you kind of steer your way out of it that way.

And it reminds me about journaling. We talked about journaling. I think it’s a very unique situation in trading. What I find when a lot of people journal is what they’re really doing is keeping a General Ledger. That means at 7:51 AM on Wednesday, I put on a trade XYZ at this position, at this price, yada yada. And then when you get offset for gains or losses, you enter that way. I think writing it in a form of a diary can certainly be helpful. I think if you, right, because now we’re speaking today about managing the trade on some level and what can you dissect from that experience? Put it down in writing because as they say, a short list is better than a long memory.

People tend to forget from day to day to day. So the things that I would include in the journal entry would be how did you feel putting on the trade? Were you excited about the prospect of making money? Did you have a great sense of anticipation? How can you describe emotionally the work that you did or didn’t do? Right? If you’re winging it, put that in there. If you’re shooting and taking a flyer, testing an idea, put that in there. So that this way, if you were a detective and this was all the data that you had from your investigation, what could you conclude from that? Because that’s the only way that you’re really going to grow, is by being your own teacher. In a lot of ways. You could talk about your expectations, as I like to say, and I certainly didn’t invent this. Expectations have built in disappointments.

But nonetheless, people do things with their money that you can’t really explain. You could talk about where did you originate the idea? Is it something that you did from the screening processes that I showed you? Or did you pick this idea up in social media or TV? So this way you get to track everything because then as you look at your p and l and you see the number of trades you can kind of reverse engineer where and how can you possibly develop a trading edge, if at all possible? You see? So this is very valuable information, but I would approach it journalistically as much as I would like a diary so that this way you have quantitative and qualitative information that you can go to school on yourself. Now, personally, I don’t know if you’re going to see anything valuable in a week. Maybe you can, but you want to think about doing this, Maybe writing for five minutes before the open when you’re about to start trading and adding risk.

And then at the end of the day, as a follow up, what was your beginning thoughts, your ex anti expectation versus your ex-post realization? What happened versus what you thought was going to happen? And then you can reconcile that because then when you can find out the variance, like what happened? Was it your behavior? Was it the market? And then how can you adjust your behavior to take into account the unforeseen, the numerous, unforeseen things that can occur? And remember, we make our money and lose our money mostly because of position sizing. So you don’t have to worry about your entries so much. I’ll say this as an aside, if you’re worried about 10 cents of slippage, your account is probably too small because that’s the cost of doing business.

Don’t let that get you hung up. If you’re trying to trade for $10 or $15 in gains for stocks and several points for futures, a few ticks here and there isn’t going to be a material percentage of what’s on the table, you see. Anyway, that’s how I would approach journaling. If you have a phone, you can use your microphone and record it, then you can go to a transcription service if that’s better for you. If you don’t know how to type or if you don’t sitting writing into a notebook or some other people, they can’t even read their own handwriting.

But that can be very, very helpful. You can also write down what was happening in the world. What did the market do overall? You see what was going on in the world? What are some of the macro factors that are going on for your trading? All that can help because when you read it back weeks and weeks later, you can kind of see patterns from reading all of your notes that you’ve kept along the way. And that might help you ideate a new process or help you hone an existing process to be closer to one that serves you right? Because at the end of the day, you want to have something (a trading plan) that’s compatible with you financially and emotionally.

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Hey there. Happy Tuesday mo fo’s. So part of going on tilt can be avoided. If you think of the following, as I’ve mentioned before, every trade has two payoffs. The financial payoff and the emotional payoff. Now, when those things diverge and you don’t get the financial payoff, the emotional one can send you over the edge. So when you think about putting on trades, this can go into your position sizing algorithm because we really entries people like to talk about sniper your entries and whatever, and let me share with you folks that is f*cking bullsh*t. Entries are mildly important.

What’s really important is your position sizing. That’s really when you make or lose it. If you have a big position or a small move in the underlying and you’ve made a lot of money, that should actually be a warning sign that you got away with something. Think of the opposite. If you have a really big position and it moves sharply against you, there’s nothing you can do. You’re already done at that point. Sitting there and hoping for it to come back just means you’re going to lose more money, pull out more hair. So you have to have a position size that makes sense for you so that if there’s a sharp move for you, either way you’re balanced, don’t do trading for the action.

That’s why people trade too big is cause they want to see gigantic swings. I was working with a pretty well known guy who was trading options years and years and years ago, eventually blew up because he couldn’t stop trading too big a size. He loved to see the whipsaws and he had gotten away with it for quite some time, but then he blew up and they had to liquidate the fund because they went below the 50% puke point. Sometimes people can’t be helped.

So when you think about your position size, trade small, you could always add to your winners. And then when you choose your protective stop, it has to be at a spot when it has to be set up in a spot where you can protect your capital, but where you can also protect your emotional constitution. If you put your stop way below support and the things broken out and your up five points and the trading range was three points and you still have your original stop eight points from the current market value, what are you trying to say to yourself? Oh, I don’t want to get stopped.

Well, what happens if you give back all your gains? Can’t you adjust your stop and trail it because you’re powerless over what goes on in the marketplace? Even if you don’t want some of those outcomes to occur, it’s not up to you. It’s not up to me either. So you can avoid going on tilt if you think of your protective stops as also being emotional stops. If you get knocked out of the trade, you’ll be financially okay, but will you be emotionally okay? So in other words, if you see a big 10 point move from your entry, but you’re only keeping three bucks of it, something’s wrong there with your trading tactics. You see you’re not doing enough to protect your capital probably because you don’t want to get knocked out of the trade in the first place. But again, that that’s the difference between a pro and an amateur.

Professionals realize that you’re running effectively a system, even if you’re a discretionary trader looking at charts and even if you’re a full on, purely systematic trader, that’s still discretionary because you get to pick the rules. So you need to pick those stops that help you preserve your mental capital because the last thing you want to do is try to go do research at night when you’ve gotten seen gigantic whipsaws in your capital, very little of which you’ve actually kept for yourself in terms of realized gains. It absolutely affects your research because now you’re looking for the grand slam and the home runs and it perpetuates. It does not end well. I know – I’ve been there. Takes a lot of effort to not be an idiot.

What else happens now? You start going to the internet and looking at articles that support your position or this and that, or justify what you want to do. Even if you kind of know deep down, it’s not the right thing to do. So that’s why trading is so difficult, I think, because all of these things are running in the back of trader’s mind and you think it’s just about making money, but oftentimes it’s on a much deeper level.

That’s why in the training stuff that we do, we absolutely force you to uncover what’s going on in the subconscious because that oftentimes is what’s running the show, whether you realize it or not. Reach out via email if you’d like to know more.

Anyway, I appreciate you being here, folks. Go to MartinKronicle and get your free copy of The Inner Voice of Trading audiobook and please consider subscribing to whatever platform you’re on. I appreciate you all very much, and I will see you tomorrow.

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I’m coming off a nice break – was a little burnt out…okay…though emotionally just tired, burnt out. It’s been a long year working on a lot of cool stuff. So let me give you a little roadmap of how things are going to unfold. Coming up. I’ll probably finish out the month of November. And then as is customary, I typically take off the month of December just because I can. However I build, I’ve been recording behind the scenes some YouTube videos and those will be in two forms. I think we have four or five already recorded with my good friend Shawn, who I’ve known for over 20 years. And that’ll be more on the investing side, what’s going on with the markets just from a historical standpoint, give everybody some context.

So I think it’ll be valuable for both traders and investors. And then for all the email, the reader email that I get, which is rather substantial, I am going to actually record those answers on video with a guy who’s going to help produce or has been helping produce the show. His name is Brandon, his nickname is Ganja, not because he is a pothead, but just because…well it’s a long story, I’m not going to get into it, but he’s a rockstar and he’ll probably be posing the questions to me in a way that I don’t end up forgetting half of what the people write because usually I just answer the question off the first sentence.

And the reason for the switch is pretty simple. These podcasting platforms, Spotify and the rest of them are super helpful in distributing the MP3 digital files to everybody. And Libsyn provides me the player to embed on my site, but not one of them helps me grow my audience. So if I go and try to syndicate through Twitter or Stocktwits or otherwise to expand the show, they don’t provide a lot of help. So then it becomes a function of word of mouth, maybe someone retweets something occasionally. And so if I’m going to put in the effort, then I have, because I have goals like you, I have growth goals, I don’t need to keep doing this. Otherwise it doesn’t make any sense to just keep treading water.

So YouTube has an algorithm that will help suggest this show to other people, which could be helpful because that’s really what is the shot in the arm for me is to meet new people and to get new questions because otherwise I feel like I’ve been just repeating myself on trying to say the same thing in a different way, which I know many of you have written said that’s also very, very helpful. But it’s boring as shit for me and I can’t spend the time doing it if I feel like I’m saying stuff that you can refer to from previous episodes. Because it’s kind of all there.

I wouldn’t listen to an episode because of what you think is a catchy headline, wisdom and everything because I don’t record them for the sake of just recording them. Anyway, back to the show, that’s the update. And then going forward I will probably peel off the audio when you create a video you can actually strip off the audio only and take the MP3 out of the MP4 so to speak – the MP4 being a video file.

And I will probably still take those MP3’s and syndicate them all this and that. As far as embedding the player on the website to listen to the podcast, that’s a big maybe I’d say that’s less than 50/50. And also the transcripts until I can find somebody to help me edit them. And otherwise for clarity and for readability, because I say a lot of stupid things or all those kind of things that don’t make for good reading.

Anyway, I did get an email over the past few weeks from someone who talked about going on tilt, which I’m guessing is because markets seem to be schizophrenic in that they’re up one day down. The other bad news comes out, stock rallies, good news comes out like PayPal and the thing shits the bad. So it’s very difficult to trade in anticipation.

I don’t recommend doing that anyway because trading before earnings is really guesswork despite what you think might be you are having a feel. You can get a feel, but I think deep down, if you have a feel or if you’re guessing right, you have hunches and intuition, you can backtest, backtest this by keeping notes anywhere. I don’t care if it’s in a journal, it’s kind of an overused word journal.

You can go to Google Docs, you can write it on the back of a damn envelope for all I care and then look at a hundred instances and see, well how did things come out? And it’s pretty black and white. You can’t use excuses. Because if you were like, well I was right, but technically this happened, it doesn’t really matter because if you lost money. And so people go on tilt in these types of circumstances because they need the emotional win.

It’s not necessarily about the money. When you get beaten down your account’s in a drawdown, you need the emotional win. So typically what folks do is they get a small win of like $150 and they lock it in just because they need to have the win. Of course I don’t recommend doing that because that’s too small minded and I wouldn’t really recommend anybody trading for $150. It’s not worth all the time you’re sitting in front of the screen. But my humble opinion is people go on tilt because they’re emotionally invested in the result of the trade, not the process itself. So this is where you can take a step back, try to look over your own shoulder and say, what is this person trying to demonstrate here. Because oftentimes it has nothing to do with trading and there’s a million reasons why we’ll cover it on another episode.

But you could have lost your job, you could have quit, you could have believed the hype on some of these jack asses in those funny commercials. I swear to God one day I’m going to do a parody because I’m the perfect guy to do it. [Mockingly] “I made $25,000 last week working only half an hour in the morning and that allowed me to quit my full-time job.”

Please don’t ever do that because you don’t know. A week of trading doesn’t mean anything statistically significant in terms of your ability. If you’ve done that, awesome, but it’s not predictive. And so don’t get crazy and give up steady streams of income and benefits and other types of security until you have a million dollars in the bank. Whereas if at that point you could live a long time without income, don’t think you can do it again.

And this is why people go on tilt, which is the theme is they have their Roth IRA or their 401k rollover is probably a $100k maybe they have$ 25 to $50k in the trading account and they’re like, Well I’m just going to trade full-time and I’ve covered that before in another episode. But what ends up happening is, again, this is what leads to tilt. You feel like you can take that money and trade it and bring in enough capital every month to pay your bills. And what ends up happening deep down in your psychology is you are effectively trading with scared money because you really don’t have the money to lose. Because if you figure, hey, I’m making I got $50k and I have $4,000 a month in overhead, well now you basically have to double your account every year just to tread water and you still got your original corpus. That’s without counting a drawdown and that’s without counting that short term. Short term gains are taxed at a high rate.

So you have to really plan this out and think of what all the moving parts are because then when the trading doesn’t go right, you just get emotionally fed up and that’s when you can start to act out. And when that usually happens it’s not a typically good outcome for you when you go on tilt. So you have to be very, very practical here. And again, focus on the process, not the outcome of any one particular trade. If you’re right, 30, 40% of the time, you know can make a lot of money here. The key is to let your winners run and adjust your stops higher.

Okay folks, good to be back. As always, if you have any questions or things you’d like me to discuss, please email them over [editor at MartinKronicle dot com]. And then if you haven’t already gotten a copy of the audio book of my book, The Inner Voice of Trading, you can get it for free at the website top right corner. Thanks for listening folks, and I will see you tomorrow.

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So following on from yesterday, I want to discuss the longer email that I got about how much effort it takes to be profitable a trader. It’s as unique to you as it will be as your fingerprint is to you. I said yesterday that it can take a long time to develop a feel. You might instantaneously understand chart patterns and all of this and that, and god knows Twitter is full of all that banality, but you have to try to trade them all. If someone shows you here’s 10 or so bullish patterns and here’s 10 or so bearish patterns, I actually feel that that’s a disservice to you because what, how does that benefit you knowing those patterns when you can look it up. Everything that you need to know is stored in the cloud somewhere.

So why would you need to memorize that? Because if you were interested in those patterns and indicating that you could identify them on a chart, which one is going to be the one for you to trade? Because in my experience I don’t believe you can trade all of those patterns at the same time. Most everyone that I know has their setup and they stick with it and just like panning for gold, it took them a while to get the right pattern and to get it down as far as the time that that takes. It comes from lots of trial and error. Just like I think anything else in life. If you learned how to play guitar, you probably had no sense of time. You probably the action on the guitar probably hurt you. same thing if you started drums.

It’s hard to have four-limb independence. Then you have to learn standard time and you have to learn odd meters and all those different things and be now the band’s metronome. So that takes some time, that takes practice. The only problem with trying to do that with trading is that you have to lose money and you say, Well, can I paper trade my way to learning all that to find my knack? You probably can to some degree, but since you’re not really losing real money, you don’t feel the burn and that’s integral to your growth. I know it sounds like, well I don’t understand. How does losing money help me? But if you think about it, you’ll probably light bulb will go off because you need to learn how to understand and and respect the risk. There are things that you can do in paper trading that you can’t do with real money because the risks are too great. You can hold past your stop order, your protective stop and lose more money and then have it come back in your favor. But doing that with real money is fool hardy.

I don’t think trading has to be all consuming. Eric, Eric wrote this email. In fact, I think you need to have a balanced life because really trading is not like any other profession. If you’re an attorney and you’re working 90 hour work weeks, it’s hard to do anything else really, really well. It’s hard to even show up in friendships and relationships at that point and be present because you’re probably gassed one, two, you have work on your mind all the time, but, and in any type of addiction, whether it’s trading addiction or otherwise isn’t really great. I think you can become passionate about something and then want to study everything. But just as long as you walk away from this episode knowing that knowing stuff like you’ve heard this a million times already doesn’t necessarily help you trade better.

You have to be able to put the trades on and feel them. What kind of emotional responses do they give and take from you. How do you interact with the market? And that’s the feel that you need. Whether you’re a systems person or a discretionary trader, you actually need a feel for both because in the end everything is discretionary. Even if you make your own trading system, even if you’re a high frequency trader, whatever that might look like, you still have to code it in a way that’s compatible with your temperament and your personality. So it always comes back to feel, which means execution. So sitting in front of the screen all day can give you the illusion that you’re working hard, but you also have to work smartly. You can fool yourself into like, man, I’m working hard. How come I’m not getting the results that I want?

Well, you very well might not be working all that smartly sitting in front of the screen all day, all day is, is turning trading into a blue collar despair when I think you can do all your research and preparation the night before and know exactly what you’re going to do the next day. And then you approach the market in a very calm and deliberate matter. You put your stops in, wait for the market to come to you. If it doesn’t come back the next day, maybe you’ll have more orders to enter. Maybe the ones that you were going to enter now have moved too far away in the other direction. So it doesn’t make sense. That used to happen a lot. There were times when I’d go maybe three weeks without putting on a trade. Now granted in commodities there’s really only like five dozen of them around the world and even then half of them are really only liquid enough to take any kind of size.

And so if you look at that, maybe three to six of them are actually trending. So that’s a terribly small field of vision so to speak. So there’s lots of times when those markets don’t trend or they’re super choppy and you have to sit on your hands and wait it out. Otherwise you’re giving good money after bad. Now keep in mind folks, for the kind of market that we’re in to develop a good feel, you know these aren’t exactly smooth markets. Not everyone is doing well. Look at Tiger Management. They’re down on two of their funds by big double digits. There’s one fund that’s down over 50%. And a good chunk of what they do is Trend Following. Scalping markets are zigging and zagging in ways that you know are atypical. So people who had an edge, even after having paid their dues, are still losing money.

This is one of the reasons why you need to put real money to work because it doesn’t teach you how you will react when you’re under pressure. There is no pressure in paper trading. You see, and I’m not going to get into stupid analogies that are beaten to death or cliches about how diamonds are formed under pressure. There’s, we’re a long way away from talking about Tiffany diamonds and trading. But you do have to go through it all. You do have to go through a hazing period where you’re rushing the fraternity if you will, in the sorority of trading. So be mindful that just because you’re at your desk by six or seven in the morning watching the markets calling up all your charts, this is like you can hire an assistant to do that. So I’ll come back to saying yes, you have to work with intention, I think is the better way of saying it. Work intentionally. What’s your goal? What is it that you want your money to do for you? And be mindful of what do you think it is that you want to do during the day?

I know a lot of folks, especially in the 55 and older crowd who are just bored stiff they retired, made their money, they have enough to live comfortably and they are excited about the markets, they’re enthusiasts as I’ll say. And so they’ll study the markets and they’ll find a place to go because the spouse or the significant other doesn’t want them in the house, you know? And so they’ll spend all day studying the markets, which is great, it’s a good pastime, but that’s not really trading. That’s entertainment. So I’m trying to come around this from a 360 degree angle of what trading is for me. It’s like, I don’t know, two to four hours of research perhaps the night before, double checking things in the morning, calling your orders in, and then waiting for the markets to come to you.

Me myself, I never really entered the market at the market (with market orders). They were always stops. If I was looking to add length, the buy stops would be above the market and I’d let the market trade into those stops. This way I’m not chasing anything. I’m also being patient. I’m forcing myself to be patient and letting the market come to me. I want to buy when there’s other buyers – not interested in pullbacks. same thing in taking profits. As the markets move up, you adjust your stops. You can do that and practice that on a spreadsheet the night before. This way when the morning comes, you know exactly what you’re going to do. There’s no guessing, there’s no second guessing. And you have a plan. And that’s important because the number one thing if you’re going to speculate is to place superior defense.

That’s the number one goal is preserve your capital as much as you possibly can, but at the same time participate in the markets so that you can conjugate your trader psychology and your emotional constitution with the very rules that you’re trying to perfect as you develop your craft and to develop your feel. That’s all the big tuition. Now most people don’t have that. People are like, man you listen to Goggins or you listen to Jocko and that’s great. And then look at the failure rate of people who, who try to go out for doing BUD/S training. A lot of them don’t make it. It’s not because they’re not good people and it’s not because they’re not intelligent and it’s not because they’re not really good athletes, it’s just that they don’t have what it takes and you don’t know what it’s going to take of you until you get there.

You can practice your sit-ups and your pushups and you can do drown proofing on your own with family members and lifeguards watching you. You can do all that stuff, but it’s not until they’ve pulled you out of bed at 1 in the morning if you’ve even had any sleep and throw you into cold water in a disoriented way that you get to see what you’re made of. And that’s kind of what happens with trading. You have to learn in a sometimes very humiliating way what you’re made of. And that comes from putting real money to work and suffering what we would think of as real losses. If you’re too dainty and too pretty and to have too much of a high opinion of yourself because you think you’re the smartest person at the table, perfect, that’s fine with me. But you might find it very difficult to put money to work in the marketplace if you have an emotional need to be right all the time.

You have to be much more promiscuous and not necessarily so opinionated. Anyway, couple days there on how to develop a feel and again, just to put an exclamation point on it within the feel that you have is your trading edge. And you never want to put on a trade if you don’t have an edge, ultimately in the beginning you have to wing it because you don’t know your ass from a hole in the ground. So you have to wing it to see what feels good. You see, that helps you develop your feel.

I’m trying to cut my workload here because I’m getting really busy with things, trying to add some more video…discussions that we’ll be recording on video and putting up on YouTube. So you should go to Spotify, Stitcher, or Apple Podcast or whichever is your favorite music listening platform because it’s likely our podcast is syndicated there.

And you can subscribe to the show this way because putting stuff up on the blog and this and that is too much work and it’s hard to train someone to be me.

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