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Victor Sperandeo on Mid-Term Election Results & What They Mean For Markets

November 03 2010 | 7:52 am PST

I called Victor early this morning because I wanted to get his undivided attention on the mid-term Election results. Here are a few snippets, but you should listen to the podcast for the full brunt.

Although the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011 Victor Sperandeo on Mid Term Election Results & What They Mean For Markets suggests otherwise, Victor does not think the current White House / Congress combo is doing to do anything for the stock market.

“We still will not have a vibrant, strong economy if people cannot overcome the system…the Marxist, Liberal system holding back the United States,” he said. This is exactly what I was getting at in my post at the Communist Manifesto, The Huffington Post What Choice Do We Have In November? We’re Not Free No Matter Who Wins.

“Pelosi, Reid, and Obama are Marxists. Boxer and Brown? Oh my god. You can kiss the CA Muni bond market goodbye. They are not going to get a bailout,” he stressed.

I asked him to put a handicap on The Stock Trader’s Almanac research that suggests that a Democratic White House and Republican Congress has resulted in an almost 20% rise in the stock market. “No chance.” And that’s in the face of the fact that there has not been a down year in the market during the third year of the President’s term in the last 72 years!

The worst “third” year was under Hoover in 1931, when both the White House and both chambers of Congress were Republican: The Dow was off over 50% and the S&P was down 47.1% according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2011 Victor Sperandeo on Mid Term Election Results & What They Mean For Markets

In what could be a foreshadowing, Hoover and the Congress passed the Federal Home Loan Bank Act into law in 1932, to spur new home construction, and reduce foreclosures. The plan seemed to work, as foreclosures dropped, but it was seen as too little, too late.

When you put enough people who would otherwise be on the dole, on the ever-expanding government payroll, you will always get re-elected because not getting elected means no more government grilled cheese.

Government will never become smaller unless there is a revolution.

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Author Larry Shover Podcast Interview: Trading Options in Turbulent Markets

September 30 2010 | 12:51 pm PST

larryshover Author Larry Shover Podcast Interview: Trading Options in Turbulent Markets

Larry’s new book Trading Options in Turbulent Markets Author Larry Shover Podcast Interview: Trading Options in Turbulent Markets is one of the most clearly written books on options that I’ve ever read.

Based on his 25 year career as an options trader, Larry starts with some simple concepts and takes the reader through multiple option positions such as back spreads and ratio spreads. I learned a lot from this book and I’ve been dealing with options throughout my career. This book is very well written and will make a great textbook for an aspiring options trader – a great reference book – a keeper.

Some items that are especially juicy:

- probabilities don’t matter with options
- where and how novices get killed (things to avoid)
- how pros make an asset class out of theta (things to do)
- misconceptions about cheap options

Total length is about 25:34.

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Michael Martin Podcast Interview Answers Questions For Prop Traders

August 26 2010 | 11:18 pm PST

A reader asked to interview me about 6 months ago. I didn’t see the benefit at the time, but I get enough questions that I thought I might give it a go. The interviewer is a reader of MartinKronicle and he did a great job for someone with no experience. His name is Gavin Murphy – an Irishman – living in London and we recorded the call via Skype.

In the interview I answered a lot of great questions that I think emerging CTAs and aspiring Prop Traders can benefit from. I hope that I’ve taken on and dispelled enough of the conventional wisdom and what I believe to be misbeliefs in developing your career and how to learn about trading.

Among the topics are the misconceptions of the benefits of trading a system versus specializing in one commodity, what indicators are overrated, another way to consider the ATR, and how to employ the Grúdlann Gheata Shan Séamuis emotional stop-loss system.

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What Comes After One Good Trade? SMB Trading’s Mike Bellafiore Can Tell You

August 12 2010 | 1:14 am PST

Bellafiore 201x300 What Comes After One Good Trade? SMB Tradings Mike Bellafiore Can Tell You

Mike Bellafiore and Steve Spencer are the founders of SMB Trading. Bella and Spencer, along with their colleagues Adam, Roy, ZMush (Z$, Mush, Mushy, Z), JThoma, GMan, are prop traders and have one of the best training programs in the country.

I spoke with Mike about his new book One Good Trade: Inside the Highly Competitive World of Proprietary Trading (Wiley Trading) What Comes After One Good Trade? SMB Tradings Mike Bellafiore Can Tell You, and the SMB training program.

They also maintain a blog at SMB Training that I recommend.

You can follow SMB Capital on Twitter.

Chris Gillick, a current friend and former colleague of mine at Trader Monthly, helped Bella write this book. Gillick also wrote an article on SMB for the October 2008 edition of the magazine called Three Rules: Motion Detectors which can be found under the Press tab on their blog.

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Forget Peak Oil, We Are at Peak Water

August 11 2010 | 12:53 am PST

“Truths are first clouds; then rain, then harvest and food.” — Henry Ward Beecher

For the most part, I trade exchange-listed commodities, but there are dozens of commodities that don’t trade as such. The most important one of them is water. The growing 21st century “water gap” between supply and demand is going to have major ramifications for the entire planet.

There is the potential for the world to go from abundance to scarcity within 25 years. What does the world look like in 2050 when there are an estimated 9 billion people inhabiting the earth and they all want healthy food, hot showers, running water in their homes, and effective sewage? Will we create a “water footprint” and trade water conservation credits, not unlike the carbon market?

Water as Political Capital

On one hand we need large urban centers to begin aggressively conserving water, while on the other hand there are hundreds of millions of people in India and China who do not have running water. This is a global issue that’s not making enough headlines — and it needs to.

Colin Chartres is the co-author of Out of Water: From Abundance to Scarcity and How to Solve the World’s Water Problems Forget Peak Oil, We Are at Peak Water and is the Director General of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).

Colin’s book, co-written with Sam Varma, blew me away — as did this interview. I highly recommend the book.

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