Things to learn before trading, man. I mean, this is where the rub is, right? I came to Wall Street thinking I had all these preconceived notions about how money was made, and they were all wrong, so it was a crack upside the head. What you learn from making money and being able to manage risk, add risk, good risks, hopefully remove the bad risks from your portfolio, is that sometimes discomfort is the more beneficial choice, and that’s how you kind of calibrate your system. What do I mean by that? Well, it’s hard to buy higher prices because of anchoring, right? “You’re like, well, it was here. It’s already here. I’ve missed the move. Nvidia broke out at $505, it went to $600. I can’t possibly buy it at $600 because in my mind, it’s already moved up 20 something percent, so I’ve missed the move.” The thing is, you can’t make that determination. You have to be unreasonable. There’s no evidence that moves go to 20% and then they stop.
So there’s all that going on, and what you need to think about is, is there really winning tickers and losing tickers, or is it winning behavior and losing behavior? For me, I live in a paradigm of personal responsibility, so whatever happens is on me. I never blame the market. I never blame an analyst because no one’s holding a gun to my head, telling me to add risk or remove risk. Those are all, at the end of the day, even though it’s systematized, the whole process is very subjective. There’s very little objectivity. So that’s why you need to be brutally honest with yourself because there are outside forces of supply and demand, for example, but whether you have to acknowledge them, ultimately it’s up to you to say, yes, I understand that that’s a data point, but it’s not relevant to my trading style. I can’t give it any weight.
When we think about trading and your trading style, because ultimately it comes in many ways, I think it comes down to your personality as a human being, and we think about two things, instant gratification or delayed gratification. What’s your temperament? How are you in life? Because so much of that can play into your trading decisions, right? Do you want to try to think about having a very, very accurate system that’s scalps or does something intraday where you make your money and you go home? Or if we go back to that famous marshmallow test, that was pretty fascinating. Anyway, I’ll put some links into the description. Were you able to say, okay, look, the kids were given a choice of taking a marshmallow today or getting to the next day, and it wasn’t just that they were judging the people, good or bad, it was they followed those. I think the study was done, I want to say in 1970. It’s been a while since I’ve read it, but as a longitudinal study, they followed those same people for 40 years and they found out that they struggled. They had impulse control, and so they had impulse control issues. And so when I think about the whole thing around trading and how we get paid to execute, we don’t get paid to know things. I’m always thinking about what’s the harder choice and how can I take pleasure in that? And I’m not a masochist, it’s not my thing, but what’s the winning behavior For Kobe? It was getting up at three o’clock and then finding the way to the gym. Even though we live in basically a city where it’s summer all year round, it is cold at three in the morning. It’s comfy to stay in bed, but he built a model that worked for him. So how can you find comfort in the discomfort and what is the discomfort for you? That’s something that you should think about because it’s not financial. It’s emotional. It’s just money.
And I think about…I’m friends with Bas Rutten – MMA guy, and he has a shirt. It has a saying that he’s kind of known for saying he’s like, “It’s only pain. It can’t hurt you.”… And so when I think about trading, I think people look at the money and they put too much importance on it. It’s really just the way you keep score because what you do with your money, what I do with my money, who cares? You know what I mean? Your goals are personal, and I can’t say that they’re good or bad financially, whatever your financial goals are. I do know that in trading, going back to yesterday’s lesson, you need to have an edge edges expressed in a very simple sense of having positive expected value based on one simple setup that you can repeat over and over and over again without making any adjustment to that particular rule.
Again, discomfort might be the beneficial choice. Is your goal to feel good or do you want to make money? Do you want instant gratification or can you live with delayed gratification? Because I can see in an armchair quarterback kind of a way, a correlation between trading styles and certainly holding periods. It might feel good to make a small bit of money today, so you want the emotional win. I always knew I had to grow my account. Why? Because I was a broke-ass-bitch. That’s why, and I didn’t want to. It’s not that I didn’t think there was anything good. I didn’t have any judgment about being that it was just life was a struggle, and by the time I had gotten to Wall Street, I had already been working like half my life, grinding to make running money. There was no other place the money was going to come from, so I had to do it myself. So I brought all that blue collar baggage with me about putting in long hours and this and that, making your boss look good. At the end of the day, none of that mattered because it wasn’t anything I could translate into a trading model. So every bit of data that you come to, you have to ask yourself the question, can I incorporate this into my trading, into my trading model? Yes or no, it’s black or white, and you can’t think of intuition when you’re starting because you don’t have any.
You can develop it. I’ll give you that, but you’re better off sticking to rigid rules and then getting fancy after when is after, I don’t know, six months, again, delayed gratification. Can you put the time in day after day after day and act consistently? It’s the consistency that’s going to get you the results that you want, and that result in the beginning might be just find the trading rules that have positive expected value. IE edge. If you’re impulsive and you need the dopamine hits, you might need to trade short term. What happens though when you can’t develop a feel? You’re going to have to find a way to get those dopamine hits from another spot. It’s not going to come from trading.
Now, I wish I knew all of this because it would’ve helped me figure out a better trading style for me early on. Remember what I said, if you don’t know who you are, it doesn’t matter what you know about really trading or anything in life because you’re going to look to get your emotional needs fed. It’s just a natural order of things. We’re pleasure seekers, and it’s in through a million years of evolution. That fight or flight mechanism is in there. What are you doing it for? And I’ve mentioned on the show in the training, we talk about this a great deal. There’s two payoffs for every trade. There’s the emotional and the psychological, and then there’s the financial. You need to know which one you’re doing it for. Maybe there’s a blend of both. For me, I take away the emotional part of the payoff of the trade because I take my pleasure in the fact that I can execute the same discipline day after day, so it’s really the pre-trade where I get my emotional win.
Can I do my postmortem? Can I do my pre-reading set up regimen to know what my wishlist is and where my orders are? Which ones am I going to enter by myself? Which ones do I call to the floor? And having that model down, that’s what gives me solace is in my preparation, so that’s where I get my emotional win. I’m powerless over the results of the trade. The best I can do is put on the trades where I know I’ve had an edge. That’s the financial side, so I do get the emotional and the financial, but they’re in two stages. I don’t get them
From the payoff, the winner loss of the trade, so steal from that. Think about it. How are you built? Do you need instant gratification? Do you need the dopamine hit or do you need the financial reward? And which one on a scale of one to 10 is more important to you? Because if you know that, again, self-knowledge is key, you can kind of go and determine what a better trading model might be for you. Even an asset class, if you know that you don’t mind striking out a lot, but you like to hit home runs, you might be able to think about maybe trading options because you can define your loss and you have lots of upside. If you buy calls, if you have puts, the thing can only go to zero, but that can kind of help you make the decision when you kind of know what emotional feedback that you need because it’s going to be there, especially when you’re starting out.
Over time, you can become numb to it because then it’s just a business. It’s like, okay, here’s the setup. Oh, there’s that one over there. In a particular ticker, I’ll just put the trade on over thousands of trades. I know I’m going to make money. I don’t necessarily care about the outcome of this particular trade. If the faster you can get to that spot, the better off you’re going to be because then you could shrug your shoulders of the weight of the world. Don’t look at your p and l because if you’re doing something that has positive expected value over time, that’s mathematically proven that you’ll make money. Expected values don’t go from plus five to minus five overnight. They can change a little bit, but they don’t waver that much anyway.