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Archive for June, 2010

CalSTRS Not Daft, But You Might Be

June 03 2010 | 2:07 am PST

CalSTRS is deter-mining if it will be allocating funds into commodity managers. Regardless of whether there is a boom or a bust in commodities, you know that managers will be long or short as commodities are cyclical in nature, not secular like stocks.

I think a boom and bust mentality is either for a long-only investor, or the physical traders such as Glencore or Continental Grain.

As a futures trader, I’m indifferent to booms or busts. If you’re a long-only investor, put your seatbelt on and then get your head checked for being a moron. You don’t know what you’re doing.

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S&P500 Still In Downtrend – SPY

SP500 300x215 S&P500 Still In Downtrend   SPY

The overall trend is still down, although day traders have made a killing playing the volatility. Long term trend following and day trading are both profitable strategies, albeit both have different risk preferences.

The June’s can go to 1120 on this chart and be right at the trendline. On a discretionary basis, my preference would be to look to go short if the contract sells off after reversing off the trendline.

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