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Archive for June, 2010

US Indentifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan…

June 14 2010 | 1:31 am PST

…which means China will be right there to scoop up the deals right from under our noses, if the war in Iraq was any harbinger, The New York Times reported.

You should buy Chinese Mining companies right now. They will undoubtedly be in the running for the prosperous deals. Jim Rogers delineated several to think about in A Bull In China, although these were just food for thought and not investment recommendations.

“The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys. ”

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Aussie Trend Reversal

aussie.september 300x206 Aussie Trend Reversal

The Australian dollar ($A), or Aussie, has now begun an uptrend. Yes, you missed 400 points of volatile drama as it consolidated, but so what. If you’re a day trader and you scalped a bunch, good for you. Maybe this is in response to the vociferous opposition to the mining tax…?

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The Market Has Not Always Been The Best Place For Your Money – DIA, SPY

June 08 2010 | 2:28 am PST

djia.1964 1982 300x148 The Market Has Not Always Been The Best Place For Your Money   DIA, SPY

The DJIA (above) did jack between 1964 and 1982 – that’s 18 years to be asleep at the wheel. It started at 850 and ended at 850. Hell of a ride though. Click chart to enlarge.

djia.1999 2010 300x147 The Market Has Not Always Been The Best Place For Your Money   DIA, SPY

The DJIA (second chart) did jack between 1999 and 2010 – another 11 years siphoned off. It started at 10k and is still at 10k. Another great ride too. All you had to do is pay all your management fees. Click chart to enlarge.

The S&P 500 repeated similar patterns between 1968 and 1980 and between 1998 and today, 2010. So as smart and nice as he might be, and as successful a company he’s built, I wouldn’t buy a Vanguard fund because John Bogle reminds of you your grandfather.

If you don’t have a sense of history and challenge all the crap you hear, it’s no one’s fault but your own if you don’t reach your financial goals. That’s why I became a trader. No one is going to care about my money more than me. Don’t kid yourself by believing differently.

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Prop Traders Trade Reality, Not Headlines

June 07 2010 | 1:06 am PST

crash.lows  300x216 Prop Traders Trade Reality, Not Headlines

Prop traders trade reality, not headlines. They trade the truth.

I’m thoroughly convinced that the media inadvertently paints the tape. Over the last 2 months, it seems they, the White House, and the Fed are desperately trying to keep everyone feeling good about the economy and the market and I think it’s a great disservice.

The S&P 500 is in a downtrend, and although there have been lots of volatile “up” days, the trend is down. And there is a lot of bad news or bearish things that need to clear up fundamentally before this downtrend will be turned around.

The June S&P 500 is trading at the “flash crash low” and another selloff of 30 points or more, would put in new contract lows.

If we’ve learned anything from the last 2 years, is that there are sometimes more than one other shoe to drop. Case in point: Hungary.

If you listen to my podcast with Michael Mauboussin, we talk about a human being’s nature to seek information that validates his thesis. His eyes scan headlines for information that validate all that he feels about his (probably long) position, as opposed to doing what I think is a more healthy choice of looking for information that will falsify his idea – so that he can better manage risk.

Prop traders have the sanest take in all of this. They trade off the one thing that tells them the truth each trade, each second, across multiple time frames. They trade off the one thing that has no political agenda, nor any mid-term elections in November: the price.

The price is the only thing in your trading that will always tell you the truth.

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John Wooden, 1910 – 2010

June 04 2010 | 9:54 pm PST
JohnWooden 300x240 John Wooden, 1910   2010

Abdul-Jabbar, left, with Wooden and Sidney Wicks.

UCLA’s grandest person coach John Wooden has died this evening at UCLA’s Ronald Reagan Hospital. “This is a sad day at UCLA,” UCLA Chancellor Gene Block said in a statement released by the school. “Coach Wooden’s legacy transcends athletics; what he did was produce leaders.”

I had the great luck of meeting Coach Wooden on campus several times at the Faculty Center. He was always surrounded by a table-full of people, no less than 9 others seated around him. I always approached and him and shook his hand to say hello. He was one of those people who you could learn a lot from just by being near him.

As a man of complete wisdom, he did 1% of the talking and 99% of the listening. It’s going to be very sad around campus on Monday.

JohnWooden.KareemAbdul Jabbar 194x300 John Wooden, 1910   2010

Abdul-Jabbar and Wooden at UCLA's Pauley Pavillion, home to Bruin basketball.

Before there was the Zen of Coach Phil Jackson, there was that of Coach Wooden as described by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:

“To lead the way Coach Wooden led takes a tremendous amount of faith. He was almost mystical in his approach, yet that approach only strengthened our confidence. Coach Wooden enjoyed winning, but he did not put winning above everything. He was more concerned that we became successful as human beings, that we earned our degrees, that we learned to make the right choices as adults and as parents.

“In essence,” Abdul-Jabbar concluded, “he was preparing us for life.”

Things to consider:

He retired in 1975, saying he had lost desire. He left with a 620-147 record in 27 years at U.C.L.A. and a 40-year head coaching record of 885-203.

Wooden created a sports dynasty against which all others are compared, and usually pale. His teams at U.C.L.A. won 10 national championships in a 12-season stretch from 1964 to 1975. From 1971 to 1974, U.C.L.A. won 88 consecutive games, still the N.C.A.A. record.

Four of Wooden’s teams finished with 30-0 records, including his first championship team, which featured no starters taller than 6 feet 5 inches.

Here is a photo tribute to Coach John Wooden at UCLA.

Pictures in this blog post are from New York Times.

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