Comments on: Outlook on Crude Oil http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/ Insight from a Professional Trader Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Michael http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-37 Michael Fri, 29 May 2009 17:39:47 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-37 Good insight. Thank you for commenting. Good insight. Thank you for commenting.

]]> By: Michael http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-579 Michael Fri, 29 May 2009 17:39:00 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-579 Good insight. Thank you for commenting. Good insight. Thank you for commenting.

]]> By: Dale http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-36 Dale Fri, 29 May 2009 15:32:09 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-36 Don't forget that estimated reserves are always changing; and, oil in storage is coming down. We may not need to heat homes, but we do like to gas up our cars and planes for summer vacations. Further, I would think more people are taking vacations closer to home -- implying more gasoline and less jet/gasoil/h.o. usage. That's going to require some time for refineries to adjust and lead to higher prices in gas and crude. The media always messes up what moves commodities. For example, take the whole WTI-Brent "decoupling:" total garbage. Once you consider the time required to do the physical arb, you see that you have to compare near WTI to next Brent and, poof, the decoupling is not such a story any more. Similar to how most writers always forget that most of the telling action is at the front of the curve. Don’t forget that estimated reserves are always changing; and, oil in storage is coming down. We may not need to heat homes, but we do like to gas up our cars and planes for summer vacations. Further, I would think more people are taking vacations closer to home — implying more gasoline and less jet/gasoil/h.o. usage. That’s going to require some time for refineries to adjust and lead to higher prices in gas and crude.

The media always messes up what moves commodities. For example, take the whole WTI-Brent “decoupling:” total garbage. Once you consider the time required to do the physical arb, you see that you have to compare near WTI to next Brent and, poof, the decoupling is not such a story any more. Similar to how most writers always forget that most of the telling action is at the front of the curve.

]]> By: Dale http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-578 Dale Fri, 29 May 2009 15:32:00 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-578 Don't forget that estimated reserves are always changing; and, oil in storage is coming down. We may not need to heat homes, but we do like to gas up our cars and planes for summer vacations. Further, I would think more people are taking vacations closer to home -- implying more gasoline and less jet/gasoil/h.o. usage. That's going to require some time for refineries to adjust and lead to higher prices in gas and crude. The media always messes up what moves commodities. For example, take the whole WTI-Brent "decoupling:" total garbage. Once you consider the time required to do the physical arb, you see that you have to compare near WTI to next Brent and, poof, the decoupling is not such a story any more. Similar to how most writers always forget that most of the telling action is at the front of the curve. Don’t forget that estimated reserves are always changing; and, oil in storage is coming down. We may not need to heat homes, but we do like to gas up our cars and planes for summer vacations. Further, I would think more people are taking vacations closer to home — implying more gasoline and less jet/gasoil/h.o. usage. That’s going to require some time for refineries to adjust and lead to higher prices in gas and crude.

The media always messes up what moves commodities. For example, take the whole WTI-Brent “decoupling:” total garbage. Once you consider the time required to do the physical arb, you see that you have to compare near WTI to next Brent and, poof, the decoupling is not such a story any more. Similar to how most writers always forget that most of the telling action is at the front of the curve.

]]> By: Michael http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-27 Michael Wed, 27 May 2009 02:31:10 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-27 Davos - Thanks for your comment. Please see Kronicle TV Episode 3. It addresses the fact that many OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, overstate their reserves perennially. In doing so, they are able to sell more crude in the world markets at present. It will catch up with them. And when it does, we don't want to be the last to leave that party. Davos –

Thanks for your comment. Please see Kronicle TV Episode 3. It addresses the fact that many OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, overstate their reserves perennially. In doing so, they are able to sell more crude in the world markets at present.

It will catch up with them. And when it does, we don’t want to be the last to leave that party.

]]> By: Michael http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-577 Michael Wed, 27 May 2009 02:31:00 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-577 Davos - Thanks for your comment. Please see Kronicle TV Episode 3. It addresses the fact that many OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, overstate their reserves perennially. In doing so, they are able to sell more crude in the world markets at present. It will catch up with them. And when it does, we don't want to be the last to leave that party. Davos –

Thanks for your comment. Please see Kronicle TV Episode 3. It addresses the fact that many OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, overstate their reserves perennially. In doing so, they are able to sell more crude in the world markets at present.

It will catch up with them. And when it does, we don’t want to be the last to leave that party.

]]> By: DavosSherman http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-26 DavosSherman Wed, 27 May 2009 01:14:16 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-26 I'd agree that the media has it wrong. I'd respectfully ask if where oil has been trading has put any pressure on price as the resulting current price makes it impossible (?choice of word) to get the hard to reach oil? Also, after watching "A Crude Awakening" and seeing how countries cook their reserve numbers like Enron cooked its books: Could there be a supply side issue? I’d agree that the media has it wrong.

I’d respectfully ask if where oil has been trading has put any pressure on price as the resulting current price makes it impossible (?choice of word) to get the hard to reach oil?

Also, after watching “A Crude Awakening” and seeing how countries cook their reserve numbers like Enron cooked its books: Could there be a supply side issue?

]]> By: DavosSherman http://martinkronicle.com/2009/05/25/crude-oil-opec-iran/comment-page-1/#comment-576 DavosSherman Wed, 27 May 2009 01:14:00 +0000 http://martinkronicle.com/?p=410#comment-576 I'd agree that the media has it wrong. I'd respectfully ask if where oil has been trading has put any pressure on price as the resulting current price makes it impossible (?choice of word) to get the hard to reach oil? Also, after watching "A Crude Awakening" and seeing how countries cook their reserve numbers like Enron cooked its books: Could there be a supply side issue? I’d agree that the media has it wrong.

I’d respectfully ask if where oil has been trading has put any pressure on price as the resulting current price makes it impossible (?choice of word) to get the hard to reach oil?

Also, after watching “A Crude Awakening” and seeing how countries cook their reserve numbers like Enron cooked its books: Could there be a supply side issue?

]]>